Revenue Gains

Quantified recoverable revenue · ROI projection · district leakage

Recoverable revenue at 5% capture

₹ Cr/ year

Out of an estimated ₹876.67 Cr annual leakage, capturing 5% protects ₹43.83 Cr in state revenue every year.

Capture rate5.0%

Payback period

3.3 mo

Monthly savings

₹3.65 Cr

3-yr cumulative

₹119.5 Cr

Cumulative ROI projection

Net savings vs. build cost over 36 months · break-even at month 4

Build costCr

Methodology — how leakage and recoverable revenue are computedshow

A. Distillery quota gap. From the AP Pharma/Distillery quota sheet — sum of (allotted − lifted) across 6.66 bottles/PL × ₹145/bottle avg realized price. Replaceable by Phase 3 IsolationForest.

B. Sales anomaly outliers. 1.5% of retail revenue treated as outlier-bound — to be replaced by the Lock 1 anomaly model in Phase 3.

C. Border proximity. Retailers within 50 km of the AP state border, weighted at 0.8% of their trailing revenue (interstate price differential as motivation). Lock 2 will refine this with corridor-deviation scores.

D. Counterfeit signal. Recent NDPL/DPL seizure cases (since 2024) × ₹1500 avg case value. Lock 3 will replace this with field-scan rates.

All constants are exposed in this drawer and editable for sensitivity analysis. Total estimated leakage: ₹876.67 Cr · 2.97% of baseline revenue.

Revenue protection — district ranking

Estimated leakage = revenue × risk weight (border-distance + retailer density)

#	District	Revenue	Retailers	Border km	Risk wt	Est. leakage
01	Visakhapatnam	₹1,882.23 Cr	426	36.9	1.79%	₹33.64 Cr
02	Tirupati	₹1,859.41 Cr	446	32.2	2.07%	₹38.46 Cr
03	SPR Nellore	₹1,549.53 Cr	339	28.4	2.30%	₹35.56 Cr
04	NTR	₹1,536.66 Cr	500	136.9	0.50%	₹7.68 Cr
05	Guntur	₹1,422.82 Cr	450	101.6	0.50%	₹7.11 Cr
06	West Godavari	₹1,299.56 Cr	281	70.4	0.50%	₹6.5 Cr
07	Vizianagaram	₹1,248.22 Cr	229	22.0	2.68%	₹33.49 Cr
08	Prakasam	₹1,213.35 Cr	311	46.6	1.21%	₹14.64 Cr
09	Eluru	₹1,207.23 Cr	195	113.4	0.50%	₹6.04 Cr
10	Kakinada	₹1,174.44 Cr	226	54.6	0.72%	₹8.5 Cr
11	Srikakulam	₹1,121.59 Cr	213	44.7	1.32%	₹14.79 Cr
12	Anantapuramu	₹1,121.32 Cr	197	38.0	1.72%	₹19.29 Cr
13	East Godavari	₹1,120.19 Cr	203	77.4	0.50%	₹5.6 Cr
14	Anakapalli	₹1,115 Cr	188	24.2	2.55%	₹28.41 Cr
15	YSR	₹1,077.92 Cr	214	100.6	0.50%	₹5.39 Cr